Lord Agro Trade Company, is a reliable company in exporting high-grade Canadian legumes, By analyzing global trade conditions and the agriculture industry, and forecasting prices in the global market for the near future, we will provide you with effective data to continue your business confidently.
These forecasts are a valuable tool for farmers, traders, and buyers of the lentil business to make informed decisions about the upcoming season.
It is the summary of the news release by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada on the crop years 2023-24 and 2024-25. This information contains corrections to Statistics Canada’s data for the 2022–23 and 2023–24 crop years.
Crop Year Definition
In Canada, the crop year is from August 1 to July 31, however, for corn and soybeans, it starts on September 1 and ends on August 31.
2023-24 Crop Year Update
During the crop season, many of the crops come closer to their final harvest times as the weather conditions are at or near the usual weather periods. The crop stock data for most grains based on last July 31, 2024, from Statistics Canada, are very close to the actual amounts.
The 2023–24 corn and soybean season has mostly accurate records.
Stocks of the non-cereal crops (corn and beans) were down by 3.8% in 2023 compared to 2022 and 2.9% less than the five-year average.
Although the drought was primarily in the western part of Saskatchewan, cereal yields in this area were down as well, and central and poorer stocks were also caused by it.
2024-25 Crop Year Forecast
Carry-out stock for most of the products is expected to be 1.5% down compared to the previous year.
Despite the lower productivity, the export of agricultural products is going to grow.
Pulses are the only major products besides corn that will experience an increase in average prices, with others showing a significant decrease.
Based on my observation of the Canadian lentil market during the 2023-24 season, I noticed huge differences in its behavior:
The amount of lentil exports to 1.65 million tons (Mt) was recorded, which showed a 25% decrease from the prior year}
Red lentils represented 1.0 Mt out of all the exports, then green lentils took up 0.65 Mt
Turkey, India, and the UAE took over as the main spots of exportation
Increased domestic consumption was registered at 0.28 Mt
The stock of carry-out has decreased below 0.18 Mt
The average price was around $1,340-1,350 per ton for large green lentils, and $820-850 for red ones for CFR Jebel Ali Port in early October
2024-25 Canadian Lentil Market Forecast
One step forward into the 2024-25 season, and the first thing that I can see is the emergence of the forthcoming trends:
Lentil production is foreseen to be elevated by about 0.8 Mt, reaching 2.6 Mt
This development is fueled by enhanced yields and the area under farming is broadened
Provincial estimates state that Saskatchewan is expected to make several lentils’ points of 85% percent production. The remaining 15% will come from Alberta
Supply is likely to surge by 35%, reaching as high as 2.8 Mt
Exports are expected to increase to 2.1 Mt
The stock of carry-out is expected to be much increased to 0.48 Mt
2024-25 S Lentils Market Outlook for the United States
As for the United States, the following situations may come up in the 2024-25 lentil season:
The region in the US that will see the largest sowing of lentils will push it to a 71% expansion.
It is less expected that US lentil production would indeed go up by 66% to 0.43 million tons, even if similar yields and more unsure plantings would be a failure
Canada, Mexico, India, and the EU (most specifically Spain) will continue to be the main places to which the export of US lentils will be
