Gulfood
17 To 21 FEB 2025 | DUBAI WORLD TRADE CENTRE
We’re excited to see you at Gulfood 2025!
Gulfood
17 To 21 FEB 2025 | DUBAI WORLD TRADE CENTRE
We’re excited to see you at Gulfood 2025!
Lord Agro Company is a reliable exporter of high-grade Canadian legumes. By analyzing global trade conditions and the agriculture industry and forecasting future market prices, we provide effective data to help you continue your business confidently.
The trend of global prices of pulses due to Canadian farming
According to the following report, the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has been reviewed for the years 2023-2025.
July, 2024. Reviewing and considering the experiences of the agricultural and crop year for 2023-2024 helps us to have a more accurate forecast for the year 2025.
Generally, in Canada, most crop years, such as lentils, run from August 1 to July 31, so, for 2023–24, the outlook is mostly unchanged because the crop year for 2024 ends soon.
An impressive factor was that legume prices were affected by a significant drought in western Canada that reduced the supply of total agricultural products. The drought reduced crop stocks, and, due to high domestic use, agricultural exports from Canada declined. Statistics Canada data (as of March 2024, released in May 2024) shows that the stocks of main field crops are 10.1% lower than in 2023. So, most crops had significantly lower stocks at the end of March compared to the previous year. Crop prices, except for legumes, are expected to fall from the 2022–23 levels due to increased global stock levels.
For 2024-25, Statistics Canada data shows a slight decline in total seed crop area, with more legume and special crops and less wheat, oilseeds, and coarse grains. In Western Canada, the weather conditions improve in June, except for the ongoing drought in northwestern Alberta. If the weather and average yields are normal, crop production and supply are expected to increase, with total production returning to normal at 94.4 million tonnes. This is 5% higher than the 5-year average and 4% higher than the ten-year average. Overall, yield expectations for legumes, corn, and wheat have increased, and prices of most products are expected to decrease due to global devaluation.
Lentil exports for 2023-24 are forecast to be significantly lower at 1.6 Mt, with red lentils making up 0.9 Mt and green lentils 0.7 Mt. Main markets include India, the UAE, and Turkey. Domestic use is expected to be higher, with carry-out stocks dropping below 0.1 Mt. Prices for lentils are planned to increase and hit a record high of $1,010/t due to low carry-out stocks. For 2024–25, the lentil-seeded area increased by 15%, with most in Saskatchewan. Production is forecast to rise to 2.5 Mt, and exports to 1.9 Mt, while prices are expected to fall.
In summary, based on Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), between the years 2023 and 2025, the following significant factors—area seeded, area harvested, yield, total supply, exports, total domestic use, carry-out stocks, and stocks-to-use ratio (3% to 21%)—have an increasing trend, despite imports (95 to 75 thousand metric tons) and average price ($1,010 to $830/tonne), which experience a slight decrease in this period.
Summarized by Lord Agro Trade Company. July, 2024
Published by: https://agriculture.canada.ca
| Total Pulses and Special Crops. Note a, May 21, 2024 | 2022-2023 |
2023-2024 Note f |
2024-2025 Note f |
| Area seeded (thousand hectares) | 3,707 | 3,376 | 3,511 |
| Area harvested (thousand hectares) | 3,649 | 3,309 | 3,443 |
| Yield (tonnes per hectare) | 1.80 | 1.55 | 1.78 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 6,570 | 5,137 | 6,118 |
| Imports (thousand tonnes): Total legumes and special crops. Note b | 284 | 342 | 267 |
| Total supply (thousand tonnes) | 7,900 | 6,501 | 6,981 |
| Exports (thousand tonnes): Total legumes and special crops. Note b | 5,617 | 4,940 | 5,065 |
| Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) The total includes both legumes and special crops. Note c | 1,261 | 965 | 1,051 |
| Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes) | 1,022 | 596 | 856 |
| The crop year is August-July. Grains include legumes (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, and chickpeas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, and sunflower seed).
b. Imports exclude products. c. Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. f. Forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield, and production for 2023-24, which are STC. |
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| Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) | |||
| Lentils, note a June 20, 2024 | 2022-2023 |
2023-2024 Note f |
2024-2025 Note f |
| Area seeded (thousand hectares) | 1,749 | 1,485 | 1,550 |
| Area harvested (thousand hectares) | 1,715 | 1,460 | 1,525 |
| Yield (tonnes per hectare) | 1.34 | 1.14 | 1.40 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 2,301 | 1,671 | 2,130 |
| Imports (thousand tonnes) note b | 87 | 95 | 75 |
| Total supply (thousand tonnes) | 2,610 | 1,913 | 2,255 |
| Exports (thousand tonnes) note b | 2,209 | 1,600 | 1,800 |
| Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) note c | 255 | 263 | 265 |
| Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes) | 147 | 50 | 190 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 6% | 3% | 9% |
| Average Price ($/tonne) noted | 820 | 1,010 | 830 |
| a. Crop year is August-July. Grains include legumes (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, and chickpeas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, and sunflower seed).
b. Imports exclude products. c. Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. f. Forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield, and production for 2023-24, which are STC |
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| Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) | |||
| Lentils, note a July 22, 2024 | 2022-2023 |
2023-2024 Note f |
2024-2025 Note f |
| Area seeded (thousand hectares) | 1,749 | 1,485 | 1,704 |
| Area harvested (thousand hectares) | 1,715 | 1,460 | 1,675 |
| Yield (tonnes per hectare) | 1.34 | 1.14 | 1.49 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 2,301 | 1,671 | 2,500 |
| Imports (thousand tonnes) note b | 87 | 95 | 75 |
| Total supply (thousand tonnes) | 2,610 | 1,913 | 2,625 |
| Exports (thousand tonnes) note b | 2,209 | 1,600 | 1,900 |
| Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) note c | 255 | 263 | 275 |
| Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes) | 147 | 50 | 450 |
| a. The crop year is August-July.
b. Imports exclude products. c. Total domestic use equals food and industrial use plus feed waste and dockage plus seed use plus loss in handling. d. Producer price, free-on-board (FOB) plant, an average over all types, grades, and markets. f. Forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield, and production for 2023-24, which are STC |
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| Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) | |||