Monthly Agriculture Market Report – February-March 2025

U.S. Import Duties: What’s the Impact?

A proposed 25% import duty on pulses heading to the U.S. has people talking. For Canadian farmers, it might not shake things up too much—only 4% of lentils and 9% of peas exported go to the U.S. But here’s the twist: those numbers make up a huge chunk of what American consumers eat (56% of lentils and 31% of peas). So, while Canadian prices might stay steady, U.S. farmers could see a boost as buyers turn to local supplies.

Now, for chickpeas and dry beans, the stakes are higher. The U.S. buys 15% of Canada’s chickpeas and nearly 30% of dry beans. Since American buyers have local alternatives, they might look elsewhere rather than pay extra duties. And this is happening just as India—one of the biggest pulse buyers—is expected to cut back on imports, adding more pressure to the market.

Global Pulse Market: What’s Happening in India and China?

India’s import rules are always a game-changer. By mid-February, it was pretty clear that India wouldn’t extend its duty-free import window for pulses, except in special trade deals. This could mean fewer yellow pea exports, making China Canada’s biggest buyer again. But here’s the catch: Russia is becoming a stronger competitor in both China and India.

Between January and November 2024, India imported 2.74 million tonnes of yellow peas—the third highest ever. Canada was the top supplier, followed by Russia and Turkey. There’s even speculation that some peas from Turkey came from Russia. Meanwhile, China’s demand for Canadian peas extremely decreased last year, with exports dropping from 1.58 million tonnes in 2023 to just 592,600 tonnes in 2024. That’s a big shift, and it’s likely due to lower feed demand and more competition in the food sector.

Lentils: The Bright Spot?

Lentils are looking better than most other pulses right now. Shipments are strong, and prices are climbing. In January, large green lentils jumped $20 per ton, and red lentils in Saskatchewan gained $25 per ton. At Lord Agro Trade, the price for green Laird lentils is approximately $1,295 per ton, while, Whole red lentils are priced at about $860 per ton, and split red lentils are around $1,000 per ton, all delivered in the Emirates.

For 2024-25, Canadian lentil exports are expected to jump to 2.1 million tonnes, with strong demand from Turkey and India. But with a higher overall supply, carry-out stocks will build up, which could keep prices under pressure

Field Crops Outlook: What’s Ahead for 2025-26

Canada’s crop landscape is set for some small shifts in 2025-26. Statistics Canada projects a slight decrease in total crop-seeded area, with pulses and specialty crops down by about 2%. Farmers are expected to plant less chickpeas, dry beans, mustard, and canary seeds, but there could be a small boost in dry peas, lentils, and sunflower seed acreage.

Lentil planting is expected to inch up to 1.73 million hectares, but production might dip by 2% as yields return to normal levels. On the bright side, strong carry-in stocks could help keep exports steady at around 2.2 million tonnes. While overall production and exports across all field crops may see a slight drop, carry-out stocks could rise a little. However, the big question mark remains—how will potential tariffs impact the market?

 PDF: Lentils Market Review Report No.08,Feb-Mar 2025.word

https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector

What’s Coming Next?

Stay tuned for more updates next month!