Gulfood
17 To 21 FEB 2025 | DUBAI WORLD TRADE CENTRE
We’re excited to see you at Gulfood 2025!
Gulfood
17 To 21 FEB 2025 | DUBAI WORLD TRADE CENTRE
We’re excited to see you at Gulfood 2025!
Over the past few months, the Canadian pulses market has been shaped by one key factor: strong production meeting uncertain global demand. The 2025–26 crop year delivered a record harvest across major field crops, including pulses. This large supply has supported export activity, but at the same time, it has created pressure on the market balance.
Even though exports remain active and above the five-year average, they have not been strong enough to fully absorb the increase in supply. As a result, carry-out stocks have grown significantly, setting the tone for most pulse categories this year.
At the same time, global developments-from trade policy changes to geopolitical tensions-are starting to play a bigger role in shaping expectations for the next season.
The lentil market continues to feel the weight of high global supply. Canadian exports have remained stable, with key demand coming from India, Turkey, and the UAE. However, the large available supply has pushed stocks higher than usual.
From a market behavior perspective, green lentils have been under more pressure compared to red lentils, mainly due to weaker demand relative to available supply. At the same time, global competition-especially from Australia-has added another layer of pressure.
Weekly market activity confirms this trend. Export movement from Canada showed only modest growth, while global markets remained mostly steady with limited trading activity.
However, there are early signals that could support the market ahead. Weather risks, including a possible El Niño pattern and weaker monsoon expectations in India, may impact future supply. In addition, reduced planting intentions in the US could also tighten supply going forward.
For the next crop year, lower seeded area in Canada is expected to reduce production. This could help stabilize the market and bring some balance back between supply and demand.
Chickpeas have been one of the more demand-driven markets this year. Strong interest from the US, Turkey, and Pakistan has supported export activity and pushed volumes to record levels.
Despite this strong demand, the market still faces pressure from large carry-in stocks. This has limited the overall upside in the short term.
Looking ahead, farmers are expected to slightly increase chickpea acreage, responding to the strong demand signals. However, production may still decline due to a return to normal yields.
Globally, a reduction in US planting area could tighten supply, which may support the market in the coming season.
The dry bean market has experienced a clear supply-driven correction this year. Increased production in North America has led to higher exports, especially to the US and EU, but also resulted in a significant build-up in stocks.
This oversupply has weighed heavily on the market, with noticeable declines across different bean types.
For the next season, the situation is expected to shift. Canadian farmers are planning a sharp reduction in planted area, mainly due to lower returns compared to other crops. As a result, production is expected to fall, and stocks are likely to tighten.
This change could create a more balanced market and improve conditions moving forward.
The dry pea market has been one of the most dynamic segments this year, influenced heavily by trade policies and shifting demand patterns.
While total exports are expected to grow, the monthly data shows inconsistent demand. One of the main reasons has been trade disruptions, particularly China’s import tariffs earlier in the season. These policies created uncertainty and slowed down demand in several months.
At the same time, demand from countries like Bangladesh has increased, partially offsetting weaker demand elsewhere.
A major turning point is the removal of China’s import tariff, which is expected to support stronger demand in the remaining months of the crop year.
Looking ahead, Canadian farmers are expected to reduce pea acreage significantly. Combined with lower production, this is likely to tighten supply. Export demand, however, is expected to remain strong, which could improve overall market conditions.
Recent weekly developments highlight how sensitive the pulse market is to both supply conditions and global events.
Overall, the market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, with limited trading activity but growing attention to upcoming risks.
https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector
As we move toward the 2026–27 crop year, the situation becomes more complex. Early projections suggest that production will return to more normal levels after this year’s peak. However, several important events happened after the initial planting surveys, including the Canada–China trade adjustments and rising geopolitical risks linked to the Iran conflict.
Because of this, farmer decisions may still shift in the coming weeks.
What we see today is a market preparing for lower production, tighter stocks, and slightly stronger price conditions overall. This shift is important, especially after a year where supply clearly dominated the market.
From a buyer’s perspective, the current market offers a transition moment.
On one side, we still have the impact of this year’s large supply, which keeps the market relatively comfortable in the short term. On the other side, early signals for the next crop year point toward tighter supply and more supportive conditions.
This creates a window of opportunity.
Buyers who focus only on current conditions may overlook the bigger picture. With lower planting intentions across several pulse categories and ongoing global uncertainties-from weather risks to geopolitical tensions-the market could shift faster than expected.
A balanced purchasing strategy is key:
In short, this is not just a stable market, it is a market on the edge of change! Smart timing and informed decisions will make the difference.